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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd