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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

Yet the current competition is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still