Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".