Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
